Doubts about the strength of European growth and the comments of members of the ECB (European Central Bank) which are followed by the week passed did evolve the scenario envisaged by the markets for European monetary policy. Increased rate still expected in December, the central assumption returned to that status quo extended (integrated between mid-January and mid-February), and then, during the past two weeks, as a relaxation. A view supported by the publication Friday of index IFO climate Affairs in Germany, fallen to 95.4 points in March after 96.4 in February, and in particular the decline in its Outlook component (see page 8).
On the eve of the weekend, the rate of Euribor 3 months June futures contract stood at 1,967 (meaning that the market incorporates the idea of a decline in the rate of transacted by the summer 55), against 1.915 five sessions earlier and 1.99 two weeks earlier. The rate of borrowing of German State for 2 years was 2,008, very close to the rate of refinancing of the ECB (by 2), meaning the imminence of a gesture according to markets. As the euro, he remained weakened by the idea of a reduction in the rate differential between Europe and the United States, 1,2132 dollar.
"The IFO should persuade the ECB, if needed, to act in the fairly near future", according to Florence Beranger, an economist at CDC - Ixis Capital Markets. This decision appears unlikely as early as Thursday. Echoing the concerns of the central bankers on consumption, the ING team highlighted the collapse of confidence in the visible distribution sector in the IFO survey. ING bet on a decline of 50 basis in the second quarter points. Keith Wade and Stuart Block, at Schroders, provide a gesture of same magnitude, but in July. In fact, the meeting of the ECB Thursday will be the object of attention, and in particular the tone of the press conference organised on this occasion. "A bearish comment on the part of Jean-Claude Trichet could still feed expectations and put the euro under pressure," according to Morgan Stanley.
"The appreciation of the yen."
Overseas, markets will test the impatience of some representatives of the Fed with the low interest rates. They will monitor the US employment figures, Friday. On average, economists expect to 105,000 creations of posts in the non-agricultural sectors in March. At 21,000, those of February had caused disappointment.
Finally, the week which begins will also under the sign of the Japan, with including the quarterly Tankan from the Bank of the Japan and the amount of the interventions on the market of the Exchange in March (Thursday). "A robust Tankan and confirmation that the interventions of the Bank of the Japan have been moderate are to strengthen the appreciation of the yen", according to Cyril Beuzit, BNP Paribas. Friday, the greenback increased to 106,85 Yen at 105,94, without visible intervention of the Bank of the Japan. For Hans Redecker, also in BNP Paribas, "the markets will not hesitate in effect to interpret a significant improvement in the Tankan report as confirmation that domestic demand is finally distributed upward.". "What should finally convince the Japanese authorities to tolerate an appreciation of the yen."